Reflex-Investors

Residential Lots Fall More Than Homes - WSJ

2007-03-20T21:55:00.000-04:00

Prices of Residential Lots Fall More Than Those of Homes

By June Fletcher
From The Wall Street Journal Online

During the real-estate boom and recent slowdown, the focus has been almost entirely on the price of homes. But land prices have taken an even wilder ride.

Residential lot prices in or near many metro areas across the country, including Boston, Washington, D.C., and Naples, Fla., have plummeted in the past year -- some as much as 29%. Big landowners are feeling the pain, too. According to Chicago-based Grubb & Ellis, a commercial brokerage, the median price of parcels averaging between 40 and 94 acres is $162,000 per acre year-to-date, 28% below the 2004 price.

The falling prices contradict the view that buying land is a safer bet than investing in bricks and mortar. In fact, lot prices have been far more volatile lately, buffeted by zoning laws, environmental regulations and other market forces. Meanwhile, adjusting for inflation, the cost to build a good-quality single-family house has remained relatively stable since 1980 at around $100 to $125 a square foot, according to Joseph Gyourko, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. "Land is a risky investment," Mr. Gyourko says...

The Top 10 Best Towns To Retire to for Less | WSJ

2007-01-20T18:17:00.000-05:00

The Top 10 Best Towns To Retire to for Less

By Amy Hoak
From MarketWatch

Hot Springs, Ark., has enjoyed popularity as a spa resort, but its low cost of living also makes it of particular interest for retirees, according to geographer Warren Bland. The Arkansas town is No. 1 on Bland's list of the top 10 value towns for retirees in 2007.

"Hot Springs is an even better bargain in terms of housing costs," he said. Single-family houses from 1,600 to 2,100 square feet average $135,000 to $225,000, according to Hot Springs-based Coldwell Banker Alliance Realty statistics.

The Central Arkansas location also is especially attractive to those with family in the Midwest, Bland said...

Portfolio issues face banks big and small | Charlotte Business Journal

2007-01-01T19:55:00.000-05:00

Portfolio issues face banks big and small

Opinions differ over looming troubles with credit quality for the region's biggest banks

Charlotte Business Journal - December 29, 2006by Will BoyeStaff writer

For the past few years, credit quality has essentially been a nonissue at large U.S. banks. The percentage of loans that have soured has fallen, and that welcome trend continued in 2006.

But industry analysts and some bank executives are saying troubled credit may appear in greater numbers among loan portfolios in 2007.

"We've been saying for two or three years that credit can't get any better, and we were wrong," Dick Kovacevich, chief executive at Wells Fargo & Co., said at an investor conference in New York earlier this month. "Credit did get better. But I'm now telling you that credit can't get any better, and I'm going to be right this time, unfortunately."

For the first three quarters of 2006, net charge-offs -- the total of loans and leases removed from balance sheets because they can't be collected -- dropped to 0.36% at all banks, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. During the same period in 2005, the figure was 0.47%, and in 2004 it was 0.55%.

Bank analysts and industry watchers believe the industry is due for a more "normal" rate of uncollectible or bad loans, but opinions vary on how that correction might play out in 2007...

Real estate expected to flounder in 2007 - AP

2006-12-15T09:48:00.000-05:00

Real estate expected to flounder in 2007 - AP

By Rachel Konrad, AP Business Writer | December 14, 2006

ANTIOCH, Calif. --Donald Anthony has slashed the price on his four-bedroom, two-bathroom house by almost $80,000 -- and added $40,000 worth of improvements, including a new kitchen and landscaping in the leafy yard.

He's used three different agents. He's listed the 1,800-square-foot home -- an immaculate ranch on a quiet cul-de-sac -- on for-sale-by-owner sites, in newspapers, on cable television and community site Craigslist. He or his agents have spent at least 50 idle afternoons hosting open-house events.

But the 74-year-old retired physicist cannot unload the house, now listed at $489,950 -- well below the price of comparable homes in the fast-growing region between San Francisco and Sacramento...

Economists Say the Worst Of Housing Bust Is Over | WSJ

2006-12-12T19:56:00.000-05:00

Economists Say the Worst Of Housing Bust Is Over

The worst of the housing bust is over, economists said by nearly 2-to-1 in the latest WSJ.com economic forecasting survey. But they still predict that the average selling price of a house will fall next year.

After several years of double-digit percentage increase, housing prices stopped soaring this year. The 49 economists responding to the WSJ.com forecasting survey expect home prices, measured by the government's Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight index, to rise 2.8% this year and to fall by 0.5% next year. That contrasts with a 13.4% increase in 2005.

"We're nearing the end of the slowdown for most markets," said Ethan S. Harris at Lehman Brothers. Prices still have some ways to fall before they'll stabilize, but there are signs that most drastic parts of the downturn - marked by a sharp pullback in demand and new construction - have run their course...

What to Do in a Market That Is Headed for a Falloff | WSJ

2006-12-08T20:51:00.000-05:00

What to Do in a Market That Is Headed for a Falloff

By Matthew Heimer
From The Wall Street Journal Online

After hurtling along for years, the nationwide real-estate boom has come to a screeching halt. In 2005, home prices in the U.S. rose more than 12%; this year, the National Association of Realtors expects appreciation to reach just 1.9% -- the lowest gain since 1992.

Rising mortgage rates and selloffs by skittish real-estate investors have helped depress housing prices in many metropolitan areas. But there's another factor that many observers miss: the relationship between home prices and incomes.

When the cost of housing in a given area grows far faster than local wages and salaries, the pool of potential buyers shrinks, and prices are much more likely to sink.

For the past five years, SmartMoney magazine has worked with Ingo Winzer, president of the consulting firm Local Market Monitor, evaluating home-sale prices against local income to determine whether a given market is overvalued, undervalued or fairly valued. Mr. Winzer relies on more than 15 years of housing and income statistics to find out where prices are headed.

According to Mr. Winzer, any market that's more than 30% overvalued...

Track home inventories in 18 major metropolitan areas. | WSJ

2006-11-05T11:10:00.000-05:00

Rising Home Inventories | WSJ

Track home inventories in 18 major metropolitan areas.

Interactive Version

Print Version

Home Prices Keep Sliding; While Hesitant Buyers Sit Tight

2006-11-03T19:22:00.000-05:00

Home Prices Keep Sliding; While Hesitant Buyers Sit Tight

By James R. Hagerty
From The Wall Street Journal Online

The air continues to seep out of the U.S. housing market, according to the latest data, and some economists are warning that prices will keep declining through much of 2007.

The National Association of Realtors yesterday reported the biggest drop in home prices since the trade group began compiling price data in 1968. Specifically, the association said the median price for home sales completed in September was $220,000, down 2.2% from a year earlier. That matched a revised 2.2% decline in August. In addition to being the largest price drops in at least 38 years, the back-to-back declines are the first time median home prices have fallen since 1995...

Housing Decline Sparks A Construction Slowdown | WSJ

2006-11-03T19:02:00.000-05:00

Housing Decline Sparks A Construction Slowdown

By Alex Frangos From The Wall Street Journal Online

The unexpectedly rapid decline of the nation's housing market will mean an overall drop in construction spending next year, with spillover effects in areas such as job growth and real-estate development.

In a closely watched report expected to be released today, McGraw-Hill Construction will forecast the first decline in overall construction spending since 1991. The company says the value of new construction will decline 1% in 2007 to $668 billion, compared with an expected rise of 1% for 2006 and a 12% increase in 2005. McGraw-Hill said the anticipated decline was due mostly to a 5% fall in construction of single-family homes. But the overall drop also reflects a 3% slide in construction of stores and shopping centers, a component closely tied to population growth and home-building trends.

"Single-family housing has fallen more steeply than what we had anticipated and the correction is taking place faster," says Robert Murray, vice president at McGraw-Hill Construction, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos. The industry "no longer has single-family housing to bolster total construction."

Pending Home Sales Fall By 1.1% in September

2006-11-03T18:48:00.000-05:00

Pending Home Sales Fall By 1.1% in September

By Rex Nutting
From MarketWatch

A gauge of future home buying fell 1.1% in September, a signal that sales will be roughly flat for the next few months, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday.

The pending home sales index fell 1.1% in September after a 4.7% increase in August. The index is down 13.6% in the past year. Home sales are also down about 14% in the past year, while building permits have plunged 27%.

The pending home sales index is based on contracts to buy existing homes signed in September. Sales typically close a month or two later, when they would be recorded in the industry trade group's existing home sales index...

www.REHPI.com

2006-10-24T12:09:00.000-04:00

Our primary indicator of where prices are going in a particular market…

At Reflex Investors Inc. we make money buying apartments. We buy them in emerging markets - areas of the country that are starting to grow.

We have researched more than 275 metropolitan areas to find the next emerging market. One of the six primary indicators we use is the weighted resale housing price index (HPI).

The weighted index is considered very accurate because it eliminates inconsistencies between the types of houses that sell in up markets and the kinds that sell in down markets. In an up market, expensive houses sell more quickly, pushing the average price higher and making the market look as if it appreciated more than it did. The weighted index compares the price changes on two sales of the same house.

We take the HPI and graph it for each metro area with price on the Y axis and time on the X axis. We then show the market momentum by graphing a two-year moving average. When the market momentum moves from positive to negative, it signals a reversal in the direction of market.prices.

Recently, someone started selling this information to real estate investors and real estate professionals for $500, plus $50 a month for access and updated data. So we decided to put our version out on the web for free. You’ll have access to the graphs for all 275 metropolitan statistical areas, updated quarterly, and we’ll email you a link when they are revised. What’s the catch? We’ll occasionally e-mail you information about opportunities to do business with us.

Are you an investor, real estate professional, data junkie or just someone who is curious about where your market is? You can sign up at www.rehpi.com. Enjoy!

300 Million and changing demograpgics in the United States

2006-10-15T16:02:00.000-04:00

Straining the stork with 300 millionth

By Joyce Howard Price
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Published October 15, 2006

The U.S. Census Bureau says it expects the nation's population to reach 300 million on Tuesday, 39 years after the 200 million mark was reached and 91 years after the county's population hit 100 million.

The 300 millionth person will enter a country that's much different than it was in 1967, when Life magazine designated the birth of Robert "Bobby" Ken Woo Jr. as a population milestone, naming him the nation's 200-millionth resident.

"In 1970, immigrants constituted less than 5 percent of the U.S. population," said William Frey, a demographer at the University of Michigan and the Brookings Institution, adding that today, they are 12.1 percent...

Some still chasing last years hot real estate markets...

2006-10-15T10:20:00.000-04:00

Some still chasing last years hot real estate markets. Beware of news articles touting hot real estate markets using histical data.

The Hottest Markets For Housing This Decade

By Amy Hoak From The Wall Street Journal Online

Median home values rose 32% from 2000 to 2005, but homes in San Diego fared a lot better than the national estimate, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released Tuesday.

The median home value for San Diego homes, adjusted for inflation, rose 127% to $567,000 from $249,000, during the period. It was the largest increase among the country's biggest cities, according to the Bureau's American Community Survey. The survey covered 7,000 areas with a population of 65,000 or more.

Of the 15 largest cities surveyed, Los Angeles came in behind San Diego, with a median home-value increase of 110%, adjusted for inflation, followed by New York, with a rise of 79%.

As Housing Market Slows, Rental Market Heats Up

2006-10-13T14:13:00.000-04:00

As Housing Market Slows, Rental Market Heats Up

By Christine Haughney | The Wall Street Journal Online

Bidding wars, once waged by prospective home buyers in a red-hot housing market, may be moving to a new front: rental apartments.

As rising interest rates and flattening home values have made renting more attractive, renters are beginning to resort to the same one-upmanship tactics to secure a choice apartment.

In Washington, D.C., the owner of the Ellington, a 190-unit rental building on U Street, has a 12-person waiting list, and nearly a half dozen renters are paying rent two to three months before their move-in dates. San Francisco renters are showing up early to open houses and racing to fill out applications before other applicants. In Manhattan, some renters are offering landlords more money than asking rents, while others are paying the equivalent of the entire year's rent upfront in cash...

Speculators feeling the pain.............

2006-10-13T14:03:00.000-04:00

Investors Struggle With Aftermath Of Condo-Investing Fever

By Amy Hoak | From MarketWatch

People camped out for the chance to buy a unit in Radius, a condominium development in Hollywood, Fla. The building's 285 units sold out in just over 10 hours -- half a year before construction was even set to start.

But that was in the summer of 2004, when the red-hot condo market was peaking and money could be made by investing in condos expected to quickly appreciate. Units were often on the market for resale as soon as they were completed. It's a much riskier proposition to flip a condo in some of today's cooling markets. "You see some of these communities that investors purchased...there are no lights on at night," said Bill Donges, chief executive officer of Lane Company, developer of Radius, which is scheduled for completion in the spring.

The lack of post-dusk illumination in some South Florida condo communities is a sign that many buyers never planned to move into the units they bought, he said. Their plans now: sweat...

Experts Say Retirement Portfolios Should Include Real Estate | WSJ

2006-10-13T09:23:00.000-04:00

Experts Say Retirement Portfolios Should Include Real Estate

By Karen Hube
From The Wall Street Journal Online

It seems that many retirees have a bit of Donald Trump in them these days.

In recent years, older investors have been increasingly buying second homes, land and commercial properties to shore up their nest eggs. While stocks were going nowhere after tanking in 2000, real-estate prices logged their biggest rise on record between 2001 and 2005, with an average annual 9% gain. Some markets, such as Las Vegas, Southern California, Phoenix and Miami-Dade County saw double-digit returns of at least 20%, according to the National Association of Realtors.

But with mortgage rates climbing and home prices in some markets falling, is there still a chance to make money in real estate? Or is the retirement and pre-retirement crowd better off stashing its dollars in a traditional mix of stocks and bonds?

The answer, according to financial planners and real-estate analysts, is that most retirement portfolios should still include some real estate. That's because land and property are "loosely correlated to the stock market," says Seth Pearson, a certified financial planner in Dennis, Mass. In other words, the value of real estate tends to rise when stocks are going down...

REJ | Key Indicators to Examine When Measuring the Housing Slowdown

2006-09-29T21:27:00.000-04:00

Key Indicators to Examine When Measuring the Housing Slowdown

From The Wall Street Journal Online

With the housing market clearly sagging, economists and investors are watching a variety of gauges to get a handle on the severity of the contraction.

Last week, the Commerce Department reported that construction starts on new homes dropped 6% in August from July, to an annualized 1.665 million. That "housing starts" figure was about 5% lower than forecast and 20% lower than the year earlier 2.075 million. The month-over-month decline was the sixth one this year and put housing starts at the lowest level in more than three years.

Market Trends

Existing-Home Sales Decline

The government estimates housing starts by surveying a sample of people who have applied for building permits. In places where permits aren't required, the process includes driving around looking for new-home construction.

Other gauges track new-home sales, existing-home sales, median house prices and the inventory of unsold homes...

Intern Jobs (Massachusetts and Virtual-work from anywhere).

2006-09-25T11:47:00.000-04:00

Reflex Investors Inc. has several internship openings.

STATISTICS INTERNSHIP - VIRTUAL LOCATION

WEB DEVELOPMENT PROJECT - INTERNSHIP (VIRTUAL LOCATION)

SEO - SEARCH ENGINE / WEB OPTIMIZATION - VIRTUAL LOCATION

MASSACHUSETTS - METROWEST - OFFICE ASSISTANT

MASSACHUSETTS - METROWEST - BOOKKEEPING/ACCOUNTING

For more information...

Housing starts tumble, core producer prices dip | Reuters

2006-09-19T14:33:00.000-04:00

Housing starts tumble, core producer prices dip

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. housing starts plunged to a more than three-year low in August, while falling new vehicle costs kept producer prices unexpectedly weak, the government said on Tuesday, bolstering views the economy is cooling.

The data comes one day before the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee meets to consider interest rates, and strengthens the case that borrowing costs will remain steady through the end of the year.

Why the End of the Housing Boom May Not Be Such a Bad Thing | Real Estate Journal

2006-09-07T15:44:00.000-04:00

Why the End of the Housing Boom May Not Be Such a Bad Thing

By James B. Stewart From The Wall Street Journal Online

Let's be honest with ourselves: Aren't you just a little glad the real-estate boom is over? No more bragging from self-congratulatory owners of property in high-priced areas. No more breathless tales of bidding wars and comparative sales.

Last week's figures for sales of new and existing homes, both showing sharp declines of more than 4%, make it clear that the long-anticipated real-estate downturn has begun. I realize that a significant downturn in any market causes hardship for some. Tales of woe are mounting from the real-estate industry, from home builders and architects, to empty-nesters and retirees hoping to cash out of big homes and move to smaller places.

But let's look at the bright side, too. The real-estate market during recent years had many unhealthy economic and psychological effects. Soaring prices forced many people, especially young people buying their first homes and starting families, out of many markets. It pushed too many people into dreadful mortgages. It misallocated capital to construction for which there was no fundamental demand...

As the Housing Market Changes, Builders Court Presale Investors | Real Estate Journal

2006-08-28T09:16:00.000-04:00

As the Housing Market Changes, Builders Court Presale Investors

By June Fletcher

Question: What's the market like in Myrtle Beach, S.C.? Do you have anything on pre-construction investing?
-- Matt Ratliff, Radcliff, Ky.

Matt: Pre-construction investing is like MySpace.com, gold-capped teeth and Brangelina.

They're all just so last year.

After all, it was only last summer when buyers were practically breaking down builders' doors trying to write contracts whenever a "for sale" sign appeared on an empty lot. With price-appreciation rates running at double-digits in many parts of the country, investors knew that in nine months or a year, when the project was finished, they could flip the unit to a new buyer at a sweet profit.

The frenzy became so intense that many builders wound up competing in the later stages of selling their project with their own early buyers. So they started putting clauses in their contracts mandating that buyers who wanted out while the builder was still selling would have to pay a penalty, or sell their units back to the builder at the original price.

Oh, how the world has changed...

Existing-home sales plunge to a two-year low | MarketWatch

2006-08-23T10:46:00.000-04:00

ECONOMIC REPORT

Existing-home sales plunge to a two-year low
Inventories of unsold homes rise to 13-year high

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:19 AM ET Aug 23, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of existing homes plunged 4.1% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.33 million in July, the lowest since January 2004, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday.

The report shows a continued weakening in the housing market, with inventories up sharply while prices are softening. Sales are down 11.2% in the past year.

"Boom markets are cooling significantly," said David Lereah, chief economist for the realtors group. Sales fell in all four regions.

The housing market and the economy are "fragile," Lereah said. Some markets that never boomed are now weakening because of sluggish local economies, such as Michigan, Ohio and parts of the Northeast, he said.

"It's important for the Fed to understand how fragile the housing market is, and how fragile the economy is," Lereah said. "The economy impacts housing, and housing impacts the economy."
Economists were expecting a decline to 6.56 million, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch...

New Index Shows Strengthening Demand for Multifamily Rental Apartments Confidence Soaring

2006-08-22T11:40:00.000-04:00

Erelease@nahb.com
11:26 am

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASECONTACT: Ann Marie Moriarty(202) 266-8350
amoriarty@nahb.com www.nahb.org

New Index Shows Strengthening Demand for Multifamily Rental Apartments Confidence Soaring in Second Quarter 2006 as For-Sale Market Cools

WASHINGTON, Aug. 22--Builder confidence in current rental apartment market conditions climbed to a new high in the second quarter of 2006, and their expectations for the next six months are even higher amid rising occupancy rates, rising rents, and increased traffic at all classes of rental apartments, according to results from the National Association of Home Builders/Fannie Mae Multifamily Rental Market Index* (MRMI), released today.

"We are in the midst of a solid comeback on the rental apartment side of the multifamily housing market," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders, who noted that during the last three years, condos have made up a rising share of multifamily housing production."

At the same time, thousands of existing rental units had been converted to for-sale units to meet what seemed an insatiable appetite for condos," said Seiders. "As a result, the supply of rental units is very tight at a time when the demand pendulum is swinging back to rentals," said Seiders.

The component of the MRMI that tracks current demand saw both luxury apartments and lower-priced apartments (Class A and Class C) reaching their highest levels on record in the second quarter of 2006, with luxury rentals reaching 73.2 and lower-priced rentals reaching 68.0, up from 62.5 and 61.5 respectively in the second quarter of 2005. The same demand index for moderately priced (Class B) apartments stood at 71.4, up 6.6 points since the same time last year and the same as in the first quarter of this year. The scale is from 0 to 100, with a rating of 50 generally indicating that the number of positive responses is about the same as the number of negative responses.

Meanwhile, the index tracking market supply conditions moved down slightly for both market rate and affordable apartments. Developers' responses produced a value of 54.1 for market rate rental starts, and 48.9 for affordable (federally subsidized) rental starts.

When asked about their expectations for the rental market over the next six months, multifamily builders were extremely optimistic, with the MRMI reaching 75.9, 78.6, and 74.0 for Class A, Class B, and Class C apartments respectively. Those expectations seemed based on a big boost in the volume of calls from prospective renters--the index tracking this component of demand was up to 70.7 in the second quarter of 2006 from 68.9 in the second quarter of 2005.

In addition, the index that gauges effective rents also reached a record level in the second quarter of 2006, standing at 85.0, which is 15.8 points higher than the same time last year and more than 30 points higher than the same time in 2003.

*Formerly the rental component of NAHB's Multifamily Market Index. In 2002, NAHB created the MMI, a quarterly, nationwide survey of multifamily builders and property owners who are asked a series of questions about current market conditions as well as their expectations for the next six months, tracking builder confidence in both the for-sale condo market and the rental apartment market. To more accurately gauge both segments of the market, NAHB has separated the indexes into versions that will be released separately: The MRMI tracks multifamily rental conditions while the Multifamily Condo Market Index (MCMI) tracks market conditions for condos.

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NS2006-148

EDITOR'S NOTE 1: The NAHB/Fannie Mae Multifamily Rental Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by Fannie Mae or any outside party prior to being released to the public. MRMI tables can be accessed online at: www.nahb.org. More information regarding housing statistics is also available at www.housingeconomics.com.

EDITOR'S NOTE 2: On Wednesday, August 22, NAHB Chief Economist Dave Seiders, along with senior officers of two large, national multifamily rental and condo development firms, will hold a news teleconference that will update listeners on current apartment and condo market conditions, discuss the future of condo conversions and offer their long- and short-term multifamily forecasts. Members of the media will be given an opportunity to ask questions of all speakers at the conclusion of the call.

To participate, please dial 800-860-2442 (toll free) and ask for the "NAHB Multifamily" call. For your convenience, presentations and reference materials will be available for download at www.nahb.org/teleconference 10 minutes before the teleconference begins on Wednesday.

ABOUT NAHB: The National Association of Home Builders is a Washington-based trade association representing more than 225,000 members involved in home building, remodeling, multifamily construction, property management, subcontracting, design, housing finance, building product manufacturing and other aspects of residential and light commercial construction. Known as "the voice of the housing industry," NAHB is affiliated with more than 800 state and local home builders associations around the country. NAHB's builder members will construct about 80 percent of the more than 1.84 million new housing units projected for 2005, making housing one of the largest engines of economic growth in the country. www.nahb.org
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1201 15th Street NW, Washington, DC, 20005
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CNNMoney | Slim pickings for real estate vultures

2006-08-19T18:13:00.000-04:00

Slim pickings for real estate vultures

There may be a real estate slowdown, but bargain hunters still aren't finding much to feast on.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
August 7 2006: 3:25 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As signs mount of a slowing real estate market, the "vultures" are beginning to circle. But home prices may still have to fall further to create the bargains they crave.

These savvy home buyers who "save their pennies, wait for bargains and then pounce" are already out and about in Manhattan, according to Leonard Steinberg, an executive vice president with Prudential Douglas Elliman.

REJ | Housing Market May Land Harder Than Economists Expect

2006-08-19T17:06:00.000-04:00

Housing Market May Land Harder Than Economists Expect

By Mark Whitehouse From The Wall Street Journal Online

Home prices in some parts of the country are falling. Builders are scaling back. Bubble or not, the biggest housing boom in recent U.S. history is coming to an end.

Now here is the big question: How bad will the aftermath be? At this point, most economists expect a "soft landing," a gradual decline that won't derail the nation's economic expansion, now in its fifth year...